New estimates released in the last two weeks of August 2026 put the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) somewhere between 3.5% and 3.7%. If you rely on a monthly Social Security check, that range matters — but none of it is official yet. Here is exactly where the numbers stand today, how they were calculated, and when you will get a final answer.
What Is the COLA and Why It Changes Every Year
The Social Security Administration (SSA) ties the annual COLA to the CPI-W, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. Each year, SSA compares the average CPI-W for the third quarter (July, August, September) of the current year to the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the last year a COLA took effect. The percentage difference becomes the following January’s COLA.
For context, the 2026 COLA was 2.8%, and it is already reflected in the checks you are receiving right now. This article is about the next adjustment — the one that will apply to payments starting in January 2027.
The Latest 2027 COLA Estimates (as of Late August 2026)
Three separate sources have published projections in the past two weeks, and they do not all agree:
- The Senior Citizens League (TSCL): projecting a 3.6% increase
- AARP: estimating roughly 3.5%, based on the newest government inflation data
- Independent analyst Mary Johnson: revised her forecast up to 3.7% (she had been projecting higher earlier in the year, then adjusted as new data came in)
Why the differences? Each organization weighs the most recent months of CPI-W data slightly differently while waiting for the full third-quarter picture to be finalized.
Comparing the Three 2027 COLA Estimates
| Source | Estimated 2027 COLA | Basis | Estimated Monthly Increase (Avg. Retired Worker) |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) | 3.6% | Monthly CPI-W tracking, updated projections | ~$69.75/month (from $1,937.53 to ~$2,007.28) |
| AARP | ~3.5% | Newest government inflation data | ~$73/month |
| Mary Johnson (independent analyst) | 3.7% | Revised upward from earlier 2026 projections | Not separately published; trends higher than TSCL/AARP figures |
None of these numbers are final. They are all estimates built on partial data, and the actual COLA will not be locked in until the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the September 2026 CPI-W report in October.
What a 3.5%-3.7% Raise Would Actually Look Like in Dollars
Here is a simple worked example using the two published dollar figures above:
- AARP’s math: the average retired-worker benefit would rise by about $73 per month.
- TSCL’s math: the average benefit would rise from $1,937.53 to roughly $2,007.28, an increase of about $69.75 per month.
Keep in mind that both of these are averages. Your own increase depends on your current benefit amount, not the nationwide average — a COLA is applied as a percentage of what you already receive, so a higher starting benefit means a larger dollar increase, and a lower starting benefit means a smaller one.
Key Dates to Watch
- September 11, 2026: TSCL’s next projection update, using August CPI data
- Early-to-mid October 2026: BLS releases the September CPI-W report, the final data point needed for the formula
- October 14, 2026: SSA’s official COLA announcement
- January 2027: the new COLA is reflected in your actual benefit payment
Why the Estimate Could Still Change
The COLA formula only uses three months of data — July, August, and September. As of late August 2026, the September figure has not even been collected yet, so nothing is locked in until the October 14 announcement.
Energy and food prices in the coming weeks can push the final number up or down in either direction. As a reminder, 2026 itself is a good example of why estimates shift: projections moved several times over the course of the year before the COLA finally landed at 2.8%. There is no guarantee the 2027 number will match today’s 3.5%-3.7% range.
What to Do While You Wait
- Don’t budget around an estimate. Wait for the official October 14 SSA announcement before making any spending plans based on a specific dollar figure.
- Check your Medicare Part B IRMAA bracket. A higher COLA could push some retirees’ income into a higher Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount bracket, which affects Medicare premiums.
- Use your my Social Security account. Once the new COLA is officially applied, SSA’s online portal will show your personalized, updated benefit estimate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the 2027 COLA official yet?
No. As of this writing, only the TSCL, AARP, and Mary Johnson estimates exist. The official announcement is scheduled for October 14, 2026.
Will everyone get the same increase?
No. COLA is a percentage applied to your existing benefit amount, so the dollar increase varies from person to person depending on what you already receive.
Does COLA affect SSI too?
Yes. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments adjust by the same COLA percentage as Social Security retirement and disability benefits.
Bottom line: the 2027 COLA is trending toward the mid-3% range based on the latest August 2026 estimates, but the only number that counts is the one SSA announces on October 14, 2026. Check back after that date — and check your own my Social Security account — for the figure that actually applies to you.